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EXPERT COMMENT: The Reform sting is really a story about who gets to manufacture political information

Fri, 04 Sep 2026 17:07:03 GMT

Professor Thiemo Fetzer has researched the relationship between political polling and election outcomes. He comments:

“The Reform UK sting highlights the vulnerability of the British political system from outside money and influence. This is well known, well understood, but yet, the British system is struggling to meaningfully improve its defenses. Channel 4 News reported three polls that were effectively commissioned by Reform, costing £32,500, were ultimately paid for by a US company that Reform figures believed belonged to a wealthy American backer. This construct effectively circumvents the already quite weak protections that British democracy has from outside influence.”

Eleonora Alabrese adds: “There are three separate failures here. A party seeking money from abroad to pay for polling. A pollster accepting an undisclosed commission, which sits uneasily with the industry’s own transparency rules. And newspapers running the results as independent findings without checking, or telling readers, who was behind them. Our work on UK general elections shows that polls published in the final weeks of a campaign can affect turnout: a poll is not a neutral piece of news, it is something people act on. There is a double standard too: had the same construct been used to move money for other purposes, a criminal investigation would follow. Here the cost falls on trust in the media, already low, and unlikely to recover if front-page numbers turn out to have been quietly paid for by a party. The practical answer is not necessarily to restrict polling, but to require disclosure along the chain.”

These polls effectively were commissioned in a way that was informed by Reform’s political strategy. The polls subsequently generated major newspaper coverage without Reform’s involvement being disclosed. As usual, Reform denies wrongdoing; two senior officials have stepped down, and the Metropolitan Police is assessing the allegations.

The episode reveals something more fundamental about the information architecture of elections: opinion polls do not simply measure politics. They can change politics.

This is precisely what Eleonora Alabrese and I have been studying.

In our paper, Opinion Polls, Turnout and the Demand for Safe Seats, we compare polls published at similar points before UK general elections. Polls appearing in Conservative-leaning newspapers systematically report lower Conservative vote shares than polls appearing in other news sources—and the difference becomes larger as election day approaches. In the final week, the estimated Conservative vote share reported by Conservative-leaning newspapers is 1.47 percentage points lower. In the paper we write that this pattern could suggest that polling is being used for “turnout engineering whereby aligned voters may be mobilized by a perceived worse expected performance in the run up to an election.”

That is not proof of deliberate manipulation by newspapers. Selection of which polls newspapers commission and publish may explain the pattern.

Polls affect turnout.

When national polls predict an uncompetitive election, turnout falls. The effect is stronger in constituencies already perceived as safe and becomes more pronounced closer to election day. In Britain’s first-past-the-post system, national information therefore interacts with local electoral geography to change participation and party performance.

The intuition is straightforward. If your team appears not to be doing well, that can become “a voter mobilization mechanism.” Conversely, if victory looks assured, some supporters may conclude that the personal cost of voting is no longer worth paying.

Now consider what the Reform sting appears to show.

According to Channel 4 News, the first of the polls appeared on the Telegraph front page under the headline “Labour would face wipeout if elections went ahead.” Reform’s role in commissioning it was not disclosed to readers. It is not unlikely that such media coverage may have had impact on the internal politics within the Labour party, as scrutiny of Reform UK’s affairs was working its way through government. The poll cost £18,000, with payment subsequently arranged through the supposed US-backed company used in the sting.

That matters because a poll is not merely a number. It is also a news-producing technology. It is potentially the conversion of political expenditure into apparently independent public information: cash-strapped media organisations have a strong appetite for clean, authoritative content: a poll offers a number, a headline and an immediate political narrative.

This is much more valuable than buying advertisement. This is precisely how dark influence operations can be orchestrated. While an advertisement says: a political party would like you to believe this, an apparently independent opinion poll may suggest to the public: this is what reality looks like.

Such information can affect political participation and may produce electoral surprises.

There is a second reason to take this seriously.

In separate work with Ivan Yotzov, we study electoral surprises by comparing opinion-poll expectations immediately before elections with eventual results across 233 elections in 51 countries.

Those surprises have economic consequences. A one-percentage-point larger electoral surprise is associated with about 0.37 percentage points lower year-on-year growth one year later, with the effects concentrated in strong democracies and operating primarily through increased policy uncertainty and weaker investment.

That paper is emphatically not evidence that manipulating polls allows somebody to manipulate the business cycle. But put the two papers together and they make an important point.

Polls help construct political expectations and may affect intra-party politics. Political expectations affect participation. And surprises relative to those expectations affect economic behaviour. The provenance of those expectations therefore matters.

This is where the Reform episode exposes a genuine regulatory blind spot. We tend to imagine political influence as:

donor → political party → campaign expenditure → voter.

The legal system and political convention are built around this dynamic. The Reform UK episode highlights that information can travel by another route:

funder → pollster → media → voter.

The party does not necessarily need to receive cash for somebody else’s expenditure to generate political value. This is very much akin to how sanction evasion can be orchestrated with indirect benefits occurring to third parties that appear unconnected.

What democracy therefore needs is not simply more disclosure of party donations. It needs information provenance.

Who initiated a poll? Who selected the questions? Who paid the invoice? Was a political party involved? Who had the results before publication? And what did the newspaper know about the commissioning chain?

The point of such an audit layer is not to decide which narratives citizens are permitted to hear. Quite the opposite - the key thing for democracies to be able to protect themselves is through the ability of contesting a narrative. And you can only contest information properly if you can establish where it came from.

This should be the lasting lesson from the Reform sting.

The democratic question is no longer simply whether an opinion poll is statistically well executed. Once polls themselves can affect political outcomes, and participation metrics such as turnout, political viability and expectations, we also need to know why that particular poll came into existence in the first place.

Citizens need to know not only what a poll says.

They need to know who caused the poll to exist.

4 September 2026

Fresh Policy Support Fund success for Economics researchers

Thu, 03 Sep 2026 14:48:00 GMT

Four members of the Department have been successful in their applications to the 2026-27 Policy Support Fund.

Backed by Research England and managed by the university’s Research and Impact Services team, the PSF supports time-limited projects which aim to inform policy decisions.

This year’s successful projects are:

Capital Gains Tax reform: from evidence to policy - Professor Arun Advani and the team at the CenTax research centre will look at potential further reforms to Capital Gains Tax, building on their 2024 policy paper
Scaling Proactive Support Systems: Embedding Evidence-Based Practices into Migration Centre Operating Protocols - Dr Bhaskar Chakravorty continues his work with the Governments of Bihar and Jharkhand. This project will focus on whether interventions designed to strengthen engagement between female migrant workers and government-run Migration Support Centres are achieving their goal of reducing the high drop-out rates experienced by young women entering the urban labour market. Findings from the study are expected to inform the standard operating protocol for migration support centres.
Housing Quality, Market Structure, and Regulation in the UK Housebuilding Sector - Dr Nikhil Datta and Dr Amrita Kulka will add a new dimension to their housing market research by analysing data on new-build inspections, reportable items, and warranty claims to develop new measures of how the quality of newly-built houses has changed over the past 20 years.

Department of Economics Research Director Daniel Sgroi said:

“Many congratulations to Amrita, Arun, Bhaskar and Nikhil.

“I'm delighted to see the Department achieve another strong set of results in this year's Policy Support Fund round. This reflects the ambition and vitality of research across the Department, and our commitment to tackling real-world problems.

“The PSF awards provide an important opportunity to develop ideas with clear policy relevance, and so often are the starting point for larger-scale research and collaborations with policymakers and external stakeholders.

“I would also like to thank those colleagues who worked hard on proposals which were not selected. As always, there were far more high-quality applications than could be funded.”

3 September 2026

Exploring fairer ways to restore coastal ecosystems with REVIVE

Wed, 02 Sep 2026 13:53:00 GMT

The REVIVE mangrove restoration project, an interdisciplinary consortium of researchers including Dr Subhasish Dey, has received a three-year grant from the Global Centre on Biodiversity for Climate (GCBC), part of the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

Focusing on Malaysia, the project will explore new approaches to mangrove restoration so that environmental benefits do not come at the expense of local coastal communities.

It is widely recognised that restoring mangroves can form buffers against storms, store carbon, and sustain fisheries. But too often, restoration projects can leave communities in low-skilled roles and perpetuate social inequalities.

REVIVE - Just Restoration and Equitable Value Chains for Inclusive, Viable Mangrove Ecosystems – will develop and test new governance models which include community participation with the aim of supporting just mangrove restoration, equitable value chains and more inclusive and viable coastal ecosystems.

The project will work in Matang Mangrove Forest Reserve (MMFR), Sungai Acheh & Sungai Chenaam (SASCM), and Setiu Wetlands (SWMT).

The REVIVE team includes the University of Manchester, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Cardiff University, the National University of Singapore, and the Penang Inshore Fishermen Welfare Association.

Dr Dey will lead the RCT element of the project. The study will use a balanced 2×2 factorial cluster-RCT across three mangrove landscapes in Peninsular Malaysia, with support from community associations, state forestry and park authorities, and university partners.

He said:

“I am excited to have the opportunity to run this large RCT in partnership with the coastal communities in Malaysia and with multidisciplinary researchers.

“This RCT will test whether adding low-cost behavioural and institutional ‘nudges,’ such as co-produced information, simple digital or paper reporting tools, recognition of stewardship, sustainable-harvest guidance and market support, on top of ongoing restoration and livelihood activity increases community participation in safeguarding mangroves and the adoption of more sustainable, higher-value livelihood practices.”

For more information about the project and its goals, please visit the project’s LinkedIn page or the UK Government announcement here: UK partners with Malaysia on mangrove restoration research - GOV.UK
The RCT has been pre-registered with the American Economic Association. The AEA RCT Registry entry can be accessed at: https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19186-1.0

2026 Economics Job Market Candidates secure positions around the world

Mon, 24 Aug 2026 15:08:00 GMT

The Department of Economics is delighted to celebrate the success of its job market candidates who have secured a role following the completion of their PhD.

The following 2025-2026 job market candidates from the Department have accepted an offer of a post:

Dr Falak Arrora, College Teaching Officer and fellow position at Clare College, University of Cambridge
Dr Margot Belguise, Postdoctoral Fellow at the Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse, France
Dr Immanuel Feld, Postdoctoral Fellow, Germany
Dr George Ferridge, Senior Behavioural Data Scientist, Cowry Consulting, London
Dr Carolina Kansikas, Assistant Professor, Trinity College, University of Cambridge
Dr Jiaqi Li, Research Officer, Sheffield University
Dr Yuchen Lin, Assistant Professor in Uppsala University, Sweden; after a one-year postdoctoral fellow post at University of Hong Kong
Dr Priyama Majumdar, Postdoctoral Fellow at Princeton, US
Dr Hyungmin Park, Postdoctoral Fellow, Department of Economics, University of Oslo
Dr Nicole Scholz, Associate RBB Economics, Düsseldorf, Germany
Dr Alperen Tosun, Economist, Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye
Dr Yating Yuan, Assistant Professor, Johannes Kepler University, Linz, Austria

We warmley congratulate them on this significant achievement and look forward to following their future successes.

Dr Pablo Beker, Director of our MRes/PhD programme, has commented:

"�� is dedicated to empowering our PhD students as they transition into successful careers. Through tailored mentoring, practical job-market support, and funding for interviews and professional engagement, we help our candidates compete on the international stage. This year's candidates have achieved remarkable results, securing opportunities at highly respected institutions around the world. I am immensely proud of their accomplishments and look forward to seeing the impact they will have in their future careers."

Photo: �� Economics PhD graduates 28 July 2026. Top left to right: Hyungmin Park, Angelica Martinez Leyva and Bruno Santos de Souza (24/25 candidates) and George Ferridge. Bottom left to right: Alperen Tosun, Yating Yuan, Sam Marshall (24/25 candidate) and Carolina Kansikas.

Other job market candidates have already graduated in January 2026 or will graduate in January 2027.

Research finds that global media distorts coverage of climate disasters

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 14:00:00 GMT

A major international study has found that global news coverage systematically overlooks many of the disasters most closely linked to climate change, while dramatic events such as earthquakes dominate headlines.

The research, published today (14 August 2026) in Nature Human Behaviour, by economists Professor Thiemo Fetzer (University of �� and University of Bonn) and Dr Prashant Garg (Imperial College London), reveals that international news media systematically underreport many of the disasters most closely linked to climate change—while giving disproportionate attention to dramatic, sudden events.

By analysing more than 135 million news articles from 466 outlets in 123 countries, the researchers show that what makes global headlines often reflects drama and proximity, rather than climate relevance or long-term impact.

Key findings:

Climate disasters receive less attention
Fatalities threshold of 20 deaths drive global news attention
Global coverage shaped by social and cultural proximity

The findings suggest that current media coverage may be skewing public understanding of climate change risks at a critical moment for global action.

Lead author Thiemo Fetzer, Professor of Economics, University of ��, said:

“This research shows that global media coverage is not neutral. It systematically prioritises certain disasters over others, which can distort how people understand climate risks and where attention is directed.

“If events linked to climate change are underreported, this may weaken the collective sense of urgency needed to address them. More balanced reporting is critical for building global awareness and co-operation.”

The study showed that an earthquake leads to a 7.4% increase in the volume of news articles after that country experiences a natural disaster, compared to no systematic increase in reporting when a country is affected by floods, droughts, or extreme temperatures.

International coverage increases sharply once fatalities exceed a threshold of around 20 deaths, suggesting that newsworthiness is often triggered by visible tragedy, rather than long-term impact.

The research also highlights how patterns of media attention are influenced by the relationships between countries. Disasters are more likely to be covered when they occur in countries that share cultural, historical, and social ties.

Taken together, these factors risk distorting perceptions of global climate risks, limiting public understanding of widespread but less visible threats, and creating uneven patterns of empathy and international concern. At a time when coordinated global action is essential, such imbalances could undermine support for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts.

The paper, ‘Uneven Patterns of Cross-Border Media Coverage Following Natural Disasters’, is published in Nature Human Behaviour.

About the study:

The study analysed 3,769 natural disasters globally since 2016.
Covered 135 million news articles.
Data was drawn from the Europe Media Monitor (EMM) and the EM-DAT disaster database.
The dataset includes 466 media outlets across 44 languages in 123 countries.

Participation and Funding:

The University of ��, the University of Bonn, and Imperial College London were involved in the study.
The work was funded by a Philip Leverhulme Prize in economics, a Starting Grant from the European Research Council (ERC), and the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG).

Strong PTES 2026 results highlight postgraduate experience

Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:38:00 GMT

We are pleased to announce that the Department of Economics has achieved strong satisfaction results in the 2026 Postgraduate Taught Experience Survey (PTES). Overall satisfaction was 91.5%, while 92.5% of respondents said they would recommend the Department to others.

Through the PTES, MSc and second-year MRes students provided valuable feedback on their teaching and learning experiences at ��. The 55% response rate highlights the active role our students play in informing and improving the postgraduate learning experience.

At the question level, students highlighted that:

94.5% were satisfied with the learning resources available on their course.
90.2% agreed that their research skills had developed during their course.
90.2% agreed that their course had challenged them to produce their best work.
90.2% agreed that teaching staff were good at explaining things.

Professor Jeremy Smith, Head of Department, said:

“These results reflect the dedication of our academic and professional services teams and the high-quality experience we strive to provide for our postgraduate students. We are proud of this achievement and remain committed to enhancing satisfaction further, particularly by fostering stronger connections and engagement across our student community. Thank you to all students who took the time to share their feedback.”

While the overall results are positive, students also identified opportunities for improvement in assessment and feedback, dissertation supervision, course organisation and timetabling. We will use this feedback to strengthen support for students and enhance the postgraduate experience further.

Programme announced for ASREC 2026 conference hosted by �� in Venice

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 12:13:00 GMT

Final details of the programme for the 2026 conference of the Association for the Study of Religion, Economics, and Culture (ASREC), being hosted by �� in Venice, have now been announced.

Co-ordinated by Professor Sascha Becker (��) and Dr Valeria Rueda (Nottingham), this year’s conference will take place on 25 and 26 September at the �� in Venice Centre, Italy and brings together researchers from across the social sciences to explore how religion and culture shape societies, economies and political systems.

Three prestigious keynote speakers are confirmed:

2025 Nobel Laureate Professor Joel Mokyr (Northwestern University). Professor Mokry researches the economic history of Europe with a focus on 1750 – 1914. He was awarded the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences (with Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt) for his pioneering work on the historical foundations of innovation-driven growth.
Dr Mara Squicciarini (Bocconi University). Dr Squicciarini is internationally recognised for her research on the economics of religion and culture, investigating how beliefs, education and institutions influence innovation, political outcomes and long-term economic development.
Dr Saumitra Jha (Stanford University). Dr Jha researches how economic institutions, trade, and financial markets can foster trust, reduce conflict and polarization, and strengthen cooperation across diverse communities.

The programme also features a suite of parallel sessions led by experts in the field, exploring topics including the influence of religion on innovation, and gender, religion and social norms.

Founded in 2000, ASREC is a leading international network for scholars studying religion and culture through the lens of the social sciences, with a distinctive focus on economic approaches and interdisciplinary research.

Professor Sascha Becker said:

“It’s a privilege to co-organise ASREC Europe at ��’s premises in Venice. We are delighted to have attracted three top researchers as keynote speakers, including Nobel Laureate Joel Mokyr. The conference will be a highlight of the academic calendar this year. “

Conferences | Association for the Study of Religion, Economics, and Culture

Congratulations to our Class of 2026 Graduates

Tue, 28 Jul 2026 09:16:00 GMT

The Department of Economics extends its warmest congratulations to all students graduating this summer.

On Tuesday 28 July, undergraduate and postgraduate students will gather in Butterworth Hall at �� Arts Centre for the 11am graduation ceremony, celebrating one of the most important milestones of their �� journey.

Graduation is a special occasion for students, families, friends and staff alike, recognising years of hard work, personal growth and academic achievement, while marking the beginning of an exciting new chapter.

Head of Department, Professor Jeremy Smith, said:

"It has been a real privilege to see you grow and develop during your time in the Department of Economics at ��, and I want to say how proud we are of all you have achieved. Each of you has contributed to the distinct character of our department—bringing curiosity to your studies, rigour to your thinking, and generosity to the community around you.

“Graduation is a special milestone. It marks not only the end of your degree, but also the many challenges you have taken on and the resilience you have shown in meeting them. I hope you take a moment to reflect on all of that, and to celebrate it fully. As you move on, you do so as �� economists: equipped not just with knowledge and technical skills, but with a way of thinking about the world that will serve you in many different paths. You also remain part of our community. We will be following your journeys with great interest and pride, and we would always love to hear from you - so please do stay in touch and share your successes with us."

Graduates and their guests attending the Department's post-ceremony reception are reminded that the event will take place from 12.30pm to 3.00pm in the Panorama Suite, Rootes Building.

We wish all our graduates every success for the future and look forward to welcoming them into our global alumni community.

Professor Sonia Bhalotra elected to Fellowship of the British Academy

Fri, 17 Jul 2026 08:44:00 GMT

Professor Sonia Bhalotra is one of three University of �� academics to have been elected as Fellows of the British Academy, in recognition of the originality and influence of their research in the humanities and social sciences.

The British Academy is the UK's national academy for the humanities and social sciences. Its Fellowship recognises scholars whose research has made a substantial contribution to their discipline and to wider society.

92 new fellows have been elected this year.

Announcing the news, Professor Susan J. Smith PBA, President of the British Academy, said: “I am delighted to welcome our newest Fellows to the British Academy. Each has made an outstanding contribution to their field, and together they reflect the remarkable breadth and depth of scholarship across our disciplines.

"Our new fellows join a community of scholars with unparalleled expertise, dedicated to advancing research, fostering collaboration across disciplines and demonstrating the value of the humanities and social sciences. I am proud to give my warmest congratulations to them all on their election today.”

Professor Bhalotra said: "I am honoured to have been elected a Fellow of the British Academy. My research seeks to understand why some people do not fulfil their potential, with a particular focus on women and children. It investigates how markets, technology, social norms, law, and political and corporate leadership shape people’s opportunities. I hope this recognition highlights the importance of bringing rigorous empirical evidence to questions of profound social significance."

Congratulating Professor Bhalotra on her award, Head of Department Professor Jeremy Smith said: "Professor Sonia Bhalotra’s election to the British Academy is a tremendous achievement and reflects a career dedicated to excellence, innovation and impact. Sonia’s research has shaped understanding of some of the most important economic and social challenges facing societies today. We are thrilled to see her contribution recognised through this distinguished fellowship."

Professor Bhalotra joins �� Economics colleagues Professor Peter Hammond, Professor Mark Harrison, and Professor Kenneth Wallis in the Academy.

Professor Kirsty Hooper, Professor of Hispanic Studies, and Professor Celia Lury, Professor in the Centre for Interdisciplinary Methodologies, have also been awarded Fellowships this year.

Read the full British Academy announcement here: 92 New Fellows welcomed to the British Academy in 2026

Remembering Professor Morten Hviid

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 16:07:00 GMT

The Department of Economics is deeply saddened to learn of the passing of Morten Hviid, Emeritus Professor of Law at the University of East Anglia (UEA), a distinguished scholar whose work spanned competition law, contract law, tort law, and the application of economics to legal analysis. He was widely recognised for his expertise in UK and EU competition law and competition policy.

Morten had a long and valued association with ��. Before joining UEA Law School in 2004, he held academic appointments in the Department of Economics at the University of Copenhagen, the School of Economic and Social Studies at UEA, and previously in ��'s Department of Economics.

A former �� student, Morten completed both his MA and PhD in Economics in the Department. Throughout his career he made significant contributions to the fields of industrial economics, competition policy, and law and economics.

At UEA, Morten was a founding member of the Centre for Competition Policy (CCP) and served as its Director from 2011 to 2018. He was also an Honorary Professor at the Centre for Regulation of the Creative Economy (CREATe) at the University of Glasgow. His scholarly standing was further reflected in his service as Editor of the Journal of Industrial Economics and as Associate Editor of the International Journal of Industrial Organization.

Morten will be remembered not only for his intellectual contributions and academic leadership, but also for the generosity, insight, and collegiality he brought to his work and collaborations.

Mike Waterson, Emeritus Professor in the Department of Economics, who worked closely with Morten at ��, has shared the following personal reflection:

"Longstanding �� colleagues will recall with warmth Morten Hviid, who sadly died unexpectedly on 10th July 2026 following a bleed on the brain from which he did not regain consciousness.

Morten came to �� for his MA and stayed on to complete a PhD in 1989. He then took up a research position at Copenhagen’s Department of Economics, where he furthered his research interest in theoretical aspects of industrial economics/ organization and information economics. He then returned to �� around 1990, becoming one of a group of young lecturers in the Department, teaching industrial economics at undergraduate and masters level as well as supervising PhDs and developing a growing research interest in the economics of competition law.

Morten was capable, friendly and willing as a colleague. He and I edited the Journal of Industrial Economics from 1994-1999 as well as sharing teaching on several courses. We were sorry he left to take up a Chair in Competition Law at the University of East Anglia in 2004 but understood his decision given that promotion at �� was slow in coming forward. Our thoughts are with Catherine Waddams, his wife."

Mike Waterson, 16 July 2026